Security in Europe has changed radically since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO countries are increasing their military spending, and some are considering a return to conscription. The arms race on the continent. .
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February, marked a turning point in European security, redefining NATO’s strategic and military priorities. From its inception in 1949 to the present day, European military budgets have always been below 2% of GDP, the minimum level recommended by the Atlantic Alliance. But the conflict in Ukraine quickly changed the situation in many countries. Let’s look at a few examples.
In a surprising development, Finland and Sweden have abandoned their historical neutrality to join NATO. This momentous change puts the Russian Federation even more under siege, also in the light of the strong rearmament of the Baltic countries and Central and Eastern Europe.
Also noteworthy is the case of Germany, which has announced an extraordinary fund of 100 billion euros to modernise its war machine.
The current historical context thus reveals a radical transformation of European defence policy and the breaking of old taboos. The post-Cold War era has definitely come to an end, replaced by a new phase of rearmament and confrontation between the blocs. With the added sword of Damocles of instability resulting from the negotiating policies of US President Donald Trump, the greatest exponent of unpredictability in foreign policy.
The figures on the arms race in Europe
Total European military expenditure in 2024 was 730 billion dollars. 58% more than the $462 billion spent by the Russian Federation.
Arms spending in NATO countries is growing so fast that 23 of the 32 countries (excluding Iceland, which has no army) have exceeded the 2% of GDP limit.
In Europe, only Italy, Belgium, Croatia, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain, together with Canada, are ‘holding out’ with very low military spending of 1.37% of GDP.
The highest percentage among NATO members is Poland with 4.12%, followed by Estonia, Latvia and Greece.
The United States is a different case. With military spending of $916 billion (3.38% of GDP), it accounts for 37% of world military spending and 68% of NATO spending. However, US spending of $2,694 per capita is surpassed by Israel, which has reached the highest per capita spending in the world: $2,997 per capita.
To compare with the world’s second superpower, the People’s Republic of China spends $208 per capita.
In Italy
The Ministry of Defence’s budget for 2024 is 29.2 billion euros, or 1.58% according to NATO. Military personnel costs amount to 11.7 billion euros, divided between the army (5.95 billion), the navy (230 million), the air force (287 million) and the carabinieri on foreign missions (590 million). Investments in armaments amounted to 9.7 billion euros. The share of military operations abroad rose to 1.21 billion euros. The rest of the expenditure is for general organisation and pensions. Overall, 2024 marks a strong increase in military spending, in line with the trend of recent years and NATO commitments. A further increase of 2.1 billion euros (+7.31%) is forecast for 2025, bringing the defence budget to 31.3 billion euros.
In Spain
Spain is currently the NATO country that spends the lowest percentage of its GDP on defence, at 1.28%. Spain is under pressure in the debate over increasing military spending, but the government has reiterated that it only plans to reach 2% of GDP by 2029. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said that an immediate increase was ‘unthinkable’ for any EU country and rejected pressure from the United States, stressing that Spain was already gradually increasing its defence budget.
In Portugal
Military production in Portugal is still very limited, despite a more significant past in this sector, and is now concentrated on goods with higher added value, with defence spending at 1.55% of GDP. However, the Portuguese government has announced its intention to reach 2% by 2029, with an increase of at least 700 million euros in the Ministry of Defence’s budget.
The spectre of compulsory military service
In Spain, conscription was abolished on 1 January 2002 and there are currently no initiatives to reintroduce it. In Portugal, the President of the Republic declared in June 2024 that the reintroduction of military service was not a priority. However, political debates on the reintroduction of conscription are taking place in several European countries (including Italy). Here is a summary of recent initiatives. Latvia, after abolishing compulsory military service in 2007, reintroduced it in July 2023 for all male citizens aged 18-27, with an 11-month service. Women may participate on a voluntary basis. In 2024, Croatia announced its intention to reintroduce compulsory military service seventeen years after its abolition. However, in December 2024, the Minister of Defence announced that the reintroduction would be postponed for political reasons. Serbia has also planned to reintroduce conscription from 2025, following a trend observed in other Balkan countries. Germany is debating three options for reactivating military service, including the reintroduction of compulsory military service and civilian service for men, while maintaining voluntary service for women. Greece has announced an adaptation of the recruitment system inspired by the Finnish model, taking into account the voluntary enlistment of women.
In Italy, the debate has been revived, but no final decisions have been taken.
Complementary activities
Here are the URLs of the sources cited:
- Avvenire – Wars and weapons: record increase in world military spending
- Centro Diritti Umani Unipd – World arms expenditure in 2024
- Sky TG24 – Weapons, military spending in the world
- TGCOM24 – World defence spending to hit record high in 2023.
